Here is a visualization of the claims for a large home insurance carrier after the 2017 and 2018 wildfires. As you can see, this leading risk model incorrectly predicted that most of the homes that burned were low risk.
When we apply our own risk model to the same areas during the same time period, it accurately labeled nearly all the homes that burned as being high-risk, and very few of the homes that our model sees as low-risk ended up burning.